Here’s the monthly portfolio update for the BTI portfolio which consists of 2 accounts: a TFSA account and a Non-Registered account.
The TFSA is currently holding the following stocks (March 31 closing prices):
(A Tax Free Savings Account is an account where your capital gains are exempt from taxes)
Market Value: $16,579 + $425 in Cash = $17,004
The Non-Registered account is currently holding the following stocks:
Market Value: $9,975 + Cash: $349 = NET: $10,324
BTI Portfolio Value: $27,328
YTD Results from January 1 2011
TSX at start: 13,443 @ March 31: 14,116 Change: +5.0%
BTI at start: 24,926 @ March 31: 27,328 Change: +9.6%
M/M Results from March 1 2011
TSX at start: 14,136 @ March 31: 14,116 Change: -0.1%
BTI at start: 28,712 @ March 31: 27,328 Change: -4.8%
HELOC Portfolio Performance
The HELOC portfolio is basically a non registered account with money borrowed from my home equity line of credit. *Please take note* that this is money I can afford to lose. The impact of losing this money would be equivalent to skipping a lump sum payment on my mortgage for 1 year. I will use the bank’s “Performance” tool for the monthly results because it takes into account deposits and withdrawals. Now that you’ve called me crazy and shook your head, on to the results:
I did not post the graph for the YTD ROI for the HELOC portfolio because it is showing an incorrect value. The bank is using a final value above $39,000 while my portfolio closed under that number. I don’t know why this tool doesn’t update its stats on a daily basis. The ROI should be:
HELOC at start: 36,094 @ March 31: 38,631 Change: +7.00%
For the record, my outstanding balance on the HELOC is now $23,500, so basically I am up about +$15,131 so far if I sell everything at the closing prices above.
Monthly Review
Ever heard the saying “Sell in May and go away”? Well it looks like May has come early this year since March has been one heck of a ride for stocks in general and oil and gas stocks in particular. Japan, Libya and middle eastern unrest subjected my portfolio to a nice haircut and while the market has somewhat recovered some of my stocks did not.
You see with spring breakup upon us, it is usually normal to enter a dead zone during the summer but I did not expect to enter it so soon. On top of that, the funny thing about oil stocks is after oil reaches a certain point, the higher the price of oil rises the lower oil stocks fall and that is because the market is sending a signal that current prices are unsustainable and will push the global economy back into recession.
I must say that I missed some nice potential profits by selling some of my stocks too soon like EQU and IPT for example. On the other hand I need to remind myself of 2 things: I do not have enough troops to keep a core position and trade around it and if I was able to foretell the future, I would be a millionaire. So all in all I should not complain really.
I am also disappointed with myself for not being too aggressive when we had the 300 point drop. I need to review my mistakes for the quarter as I am not perfect. While buying WRK at a low price was a masterstroke, selling DAY was a bad decision and I should have kept it as it has a low payout ratio and offers a good exposure to a natural gas recovery in the future. I assumed DAY would slip back under 10 but I was wrong.
On to the bleeding stocks in my portfolio so let’s start with PMT. Perpetual Energy is a play on game changers and it will follow natural gas prices closely in the short term as its production is weighted to gas. An interesting tid bit about PMT is it recently acquired land in the Del Bonita area on the border with Montana which is prospective for Alberta Bakken oil. Company refused to provide me with more info. PMT will go under $4 again as natural gas prices start their seasonal decent on supply build up and not enough consumption. I would buy more PMT for the long term depending on the price and how the company is executing its plans during the year.
TOL is the black sheep of my portfolio. It follows the market down but not the other way. I expect TOL to recover in the second half of 2011. The year end results due on April 26th will have a lot to say about what the company has been doing. They will be reporting results on 8 gross wells drilled in Tableland Sask, Sweeny and Lochend AB.
SCS was sold by investors on its results; it’s as if they never knew the company lost production in Q4 because of its fire at the company’s Judy Creek gas plant. They are currently discounting its Beaver Hill Lake exploration play which was recently farmed out to an intermediate producer. But the market will come back and bid SCS higher either as the first BHL well results are out or as SCS adds more Pekisko horizontal oil wells on production. I also would love to average down but haven’t decided yet on the timing.
HYX is the new kid on the block, a stink bid at $1.31 got filled yesterday brining my total holdings to 2,500 shares at an average price of $1.37. In my opinion the stock is going through temporary weakness which is my favorite time to buy in. I will have a lot to say about HYX next week as I plan to feature it.
I could write a page on each stock I am currently holding but that would make this post too long and boring so on to the conclusion. I always remind myself why I bought a piece of a business in order to avoid selling on emotions. There are no fundamental reasons yet for selling any of my losers and I intend to stick to my analysis. Selling every time a stock drops will shrink my portfolio instead of growing it. I also have the luxury to max my margin if I choose to since my dividends can sustain more margin than what I can use. The year is still young and while I might not hit an 80% ROI like 2010, I am still optimistic for another successful year.
How did your portfolio perform in March?
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