January 3rd, 2012 
Category: 
It’s time for a rematch! The friendly stock picking competition amongst a group of fellow bloggers is back in 2012. Each blogger picks 4 stocks (or ETFs) they think will outperform in 2012. The blogger can pick equities from the Canadian and US stock markets. Dividends, if any, will be included in the final tally since they add to the final ROI. This year we welcome The Passive Income Earner and Dividend Mantra to the group.
My 2011 Stock picks were the following:
- SkyWest Energy (TSXV:SKW) Cardium Oil play
- Arcan Resources (TSXV:ARN) Swan Hills Reef Oil play
- Bowood Energy (TSXV:BWD) Emerging Alberta Bakken Oil play
- Reliable Energy (TSXV:REL) Bakken Oil play
SKW Energy’s return was -78% and Bowood Energy’s return was -72.5% resulting in a disastrous outcome. SkyWest Energy was a total failure thanks to an incompetent management team and Bowood simply sank on disappointing results from the Alberta Bakken. Bowood has been the riskiest pick and it did not pay back as the Alberta Bakken hype deflated and turned into a route. Where does that put me? At the bottom of the pack so allow me to say it again: good riddance 2011!
2012 is payback time
On to my picks for 2012, my 4 top stocks for this competition are the following:
- Eagle Energy Trust (TSE:EGL.UN) 100% light oil Texas play
- Poseidon Concepts (TSE:PSN) O&G Services sector
- Palliser Oil & Gas (TSXV:PXL) Heavy Oil junior producer
- Second Wave Petroleum (TSE:SCS) Swan Hills Reef Oil play
Did you honestly think I would pick a stock outside of the Oil and Gas sector? I am staying true to my colors with my picks by focusing on the sector that interests me. However, compared to last year’s picks you will find 2 dividend payers (PSN and EGL.UN) and 2 junior oil producers.
Let’s look at the final results for 2011 where you will notice my embarrassing ROI. The competitors also posted their top picks along with the results:
| Rank | Site | 2011 Return (%) |
| 1 | Dividend Growth Investor | 15.36 |
| 2 | Million Dollar Journey | 3.12 |
| 3 | Intelligent Speculator | -4.90 |
| 4 | Money Smarts | -9.55 |
| 5 | Where Does All My Money Go | -17.04 |
| 6 | My Traders Journal | -19.00 |
| 7 | The Financial Blogger | -21.73 |
| 8 | The Wild Investor | -33.34 |
| 9 | Beating The Index | -44.08 |
| New | The Passive Income Earner | N/A |
| New | Dividend Mantra | N/A |
Of course, there is no guarantee that these stocks will outperform the competition. Remember that they will not be actively managed (bought and sold repeatedly depending on opportunities). It is simply a matter of buying on Jan 3rd, 2012 and selling on December 31, 2012.
Please feel free to comment on my all Canadian O&G Team or add your own picks!
No, didn’t think for a minute that you would go outside the sector. The small oil & gas plays that you choose tend to be feast or famine. Last year was famine. Hopefully this year is feast. Good luck.
You know me CFM! I am also hoping 2012 is a feat year for the sector, I don’t mind a repeat of 2010 at all
[...] BeatingTheIndex: -44.08% [...]
As an FYI two of Schwab’s models performed as follows:
Moderately Conservative 30%domestic equities, 10% international, 605 cash and fixed income = +2.97%
Moderately Aggressive 60% domestic equities, 20% international equities,20% cash and fixed income = -0.94%
Hi Rob,
of course compared to my indexed RRSPs, my speculative account have been a disaster in 2011. I have nothing against indexing and highly recommend it to anyone who doesn’t have the nerves to support volatility or the time to research sectors/companies.
[...] My Money Go -17.04% My Traders Journal -19.00% The Financial Blogger -21.73% Wild Investor -33.34% Beating The Index -44.08% The Passive Income Earner (NEW) Dividend Mantra [...]
Always bullish on O&G BTI! I’m rooting for you!
Thanks MC! Got to be optimistic in this content
I wish you well Mich. This contest shows some of the weaknesses of the traditional “buy and hold” philosophy when choosing stocks. I know you’re not advocating such an approach…
Thanks Doc, and you are right especially in my case where I like to pick junior producers. Talk about wild volatility compared to an index!
[...] Beating the Index [...]
Love those emerging O&G plays:
TAT (Transatlantic Petroleum)
TPLM (Triangle Petroleum)
PIE (Primary Petroleum)
SSN (Samson Oil)
Should be a rebound year for enery stocks.
Bob, I especially like TPLM amongst your picks but PIE …hmmm….not so much
Hope you’re right about 2012 being a rebound year!
[...] Beating The Index [...]
[...] 9BeatingTheIndex-44.08% [...]
[...] Beating The Index -44.08% [...]
[...] Beating The Index -44.08% [...]
Mich: I lost last year too, because I said you were going to win–and I bet big on it too. Well, I think we’re gonna come back this year with a vengeance. I’m already substantially de-leveraging my positions. Today, Daylight Energy paid out–that alone helps me to lower my line of credit by 30%. I’m starting breath easy again.
A solid Q1 for our sector would go a long way in putting us ahead of the market for the year. It’s time to come back with a vengeance
Go O&G! I’m rootin’ for your picks.
Thanks 101! need all the support I can get
Palliser Oil & Gas is a good decision in my opinion. That would’ve been my choice also. It may be a junior oil producer but i think that it has room for development.
I think it’s a good choice as well Stephen!
Mich, where can I find what other participants picked? Wanted for myself also pick 4 stocks and compare results with gurus.
gibor,
Click on the blog name of interest in the table above as it will link you to their website and post.
Mich, this way I should click a lot of times lol . I thoughts there is one location in xsl for all participants and picks
You’re gonna have to click through the list gibor
Keep it up, it happened to be a bad year in your sector but I think 2012 will be much better:)
Performance in my sector seems to be of a binary nature lately, either big time up or big time down
I plan to be sitting in the number 1 spot this year
[...] Stock Picking Contest: 4 Stocks to Buy in 2012 (Beating The Index) [...]
Mich, hope your 1st 2012 pick will do better than 1st 2011 pick
I’m watching EGL.UN and probably will buy from DAY’s sell money
EGL had a nice news release today, they exited 2011 just like they guided. No debt, all oil and a generous distribution make me a happy holder
[...] you can see from the chart above, SCS and PSN totally collapsed. When I first posted my picks last January, I ended the post with the following [...]